EV Batteries in the Energy Transition Could Save Germany €255 Billion
A new study shows that EV batteries in the energy transition could save Germany billions while turning households into active energy players.
EV Batteries in the Energy Transition Could Save Germany €255 Billion
A comprehensive Roland Berger study reveals how electric vehicles, solar power, storage, and heat pumps could reshape Germany’s energy system, delivering €255 billion in value by 2045 and turning households into active energy players.
A Turning Point for Germany’s Energy Future
Germany stands at a decisive crossroads. Policymakers, industry leaders, and households face diverging opinions on how to secure the country’s energy future while maintaining economic efficiency. Central to this debate is whether large-scale centralized plants should dominate the energy mix, or whether decentralized solutions — energy generated and stored near the point of consumption — should be scaled up to play a bigger role.
According to the latest Roland Berger analysis, commissioned by Enpal and presented by Volkswagen Group’s Elli brand alongside more than 20 energy companies, the answer lies in combining both. The study concludes that only a hybrid model — integrating renewable energy, decentralized systems, and limited backup gas capacity — can ensure supply security, reduce costs, and support Germany’s legally mandated climate neutrality target by 2045.
Decentralized energy solutions are not merely an add-on. They represent a new energy ecosystem built around photovoltaic (PV) systems, home storage batteries, electric vehicles with bidirectional charging, and heat pumps. By connecting these technologies through digital smart grids and intelligent management systems, Germany could cut infrastructure costs, strengthen resilience, and generate up to €255 billion in added value by 2045.
Defining Decentralized Energy
The study defines decentralized energy as electricity generated, stored, and managed close to the point of consumption — typically within households or small businesses. These solutions reduce transmission losses, ease grid congestion, and provide flexibility at times of fluctuating demand.
Key elements include:
Small-scale solar PV systems installed on rooftops.
Home storage batteries, increasingly linked to electric vehicles.
Heat pumps and smart thermal storage, providing heating and cooling while serving as demand-shifting assets.
Smart and bidirectional charging of EVs, enabling cars to act as mobile storage units.
These components interact not only within individual households but also across local and regional networks, supported by digitalization and intelligent control systems.
The Economic Case: €255 Billion in Added Value
Between 2025 and 2045, decentralized energy solutions could create €185–255 billion in economic value, equating to roughly €13 billion per year. This figure stems from three main drivers:
System-wide cost efficiency: Decentralized energy can save €40–60 billion by reducing investment (CAPEX) and operating costs (OPEX).
Technological leadership and local value creation: Germany’s innovation ecosystem could add €25–35 billion through intellectual property (IP) monetization and job creation.
Direct benefits for consumers: Households and SMEs could realize €120–160 billion in value through energy cost savings and investment-driven returns.
These numbers are not hypothetical. They reflect tangible savings in avoided grid expansions, reduced reliance on fossil-fuel backup plants, and lower redispatch costs.
Cutting Costs: CAPEX and OPEX Savings
A significant share of the €255 billion potential stems from avoided infrastructure spending:
Network expansion: Intelligent decentralized integration could cut low-voltage grid expansion costs by 40–50%, saving €18–27 billion.
Backup capacity: With distributed flexibility, Germany could avoid building 7 GW of new gas-fired plants, reducing investment costs by €5–8 billion.
Operating costs: Flexible load shifting and local balancing would lower annual redispatch and balancing costs, saving €15–22 billion.
Maintenance savings: Reduced grid expansion means lower upkeep, cutting OPEX by €2–3 billion.
In practice, this means less reliance on expensive fossil-fuel peaking plants and fewer subsidies tied to large-scale central infrastructure.
EV Batteries in the Energy Transition: Mobile Power Plants
One of the most innovative findings of the study is the role of EV batteries in the energy transition. Rather than being passive storage devices, EVs can become active grid assets:
Bidirectional charging allows EVs to discharge energy during peak times.
Smart charging schedules align with renewable production, e.g., charging midday when solar generation is high.
Virtual power plants aggregate thousands of EVs, creating scalable, flexible capacity.
For households, this translates into real savings. A typical German household could cut energy bills by 50%, saving €900–1,200 annually. SMEs stand to save €1,500–2,500 per year. Combined, consumers could reduce spending by up to €18 billion by 2045.
These benefits turn consumers into “flexumers” — flexible prosumers who not only generate and consume electricity but also respond dynamically to price and grid signals.
Boosting Jobs and Innovation
The transition to decentralized energy is not only about cost savings. It represents a new industrial growth engine for Germany.
Intellectual property monetization: Exportable technologies such as home energy management systems, smart grids, and EV software could add €20–28 billion to the economy.
Startup ecosystem growth: Energy-tech, sustainable mobility, home energy management, and green fintech clusters are expected to expand rapidly.
Employment impact: By 2045, decentralized energy solutions could create up to 100,000 new jobs, strengthening Germany’s competitiveness.
These clusters are highly interdependent: households installing solar panels often adopt EVs and storage systems, which in turn drive demand for smart energy software and services.
Consumer Investment and Participation
The study emphasizes that German households and SMEs are not just passive beneficiaries. Their investments will shape the system:
Private households: Expected to invest €79–105 billion, typically spending around €8,500 on PV, batteries, and heat pumps — about 15% of average annual income.
SMEs: Projected to contribute €27–37 billion in investments.
This mass participation mobilizes capital without requiring large-scale public subsidies, ensuring a broad societal stake in the energy transition.
Policy Framework: Conditions for Unlocking Potential
To capture the full €255 billion potential, the report highlights several urgent policy steps:
Regulatory equality: Decentralized flexibility must be valued on par with large-scale renewables and gas backup plants.
Digital infrastructure: Accelerated rollout of smart meters and digitalized grid operator processes.
Fair grid charges: Reforms ensuring that storage systems are not disproportionately penalized.
Legal clarity: Frameworks for bidirectional charging and consumer participation need urgent optimization.
The “New Energy Alliance,” which includes over 20 companies such as Enpal, LichtBlick, Octopus Energy, Thermondo, Elli, and 1KOMMA5°, is lobbying for these changes, warning that otherwise billions will flow into outdated fossil backup infrastructure.
Strategic Importance: Climate, Security and Resilience
Germany’s energy strategy must meet three overarching goals:
Climate neutrality: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 65% by 2030 and achieve full neutrality by 2045.
Resilience: Strengthen the system against geopolitical shocks by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Supply security: Guarantee reliable, affordable electricity even during periods of low renewable generation.
Decentralized solutions, anchored by EV batteries in the energy transition, contribute to all three by diversifying supply, lowering costs, and ensuring local resilience.
Households at the Heart of the Energy Transition
The Roland Berger study paints a clear picture: Germany’s energy future cannot be secured solely through wind farms, solar parks, or gas plants. Households, SMEs, and EV owners are not only consumers but critical contributors to grid stability, cost efficiency, and climate neutrality.
By 2045, decentralized energy could reshape the system, saving €255 billion, creating 100,000 jobs, and establishing Germany as a global leader in new energy technologies. The challenge now lies in policy frameworks that empower consumers and businesses to fully embrace their role.
For Germany, the energy transition will be won not only in power plants and government offices but also in driveways, rooftops, and living rooms — where EV batteries in the energy transition become as central to security as any gas turbine or wind farm.
The full study is available at: www.new-energy-alliance.de
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